Forecasting & Risk
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GDP Grew 3.4%; Real Disposable Income Fell 0.3%
Third-quarter U.S. GDP accelerated, but September real disposable income fell. What the split signal means for…
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Fed Holds at 3.75%–4.00% as Two Officials Seek a Hike
The Fed held rates 10–2 on October 28. Here is how finance teams should translate the…
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Randstad’s Rebound Complicates the Labor Slowdown
Randstad’s staffing rebound is a useful leading signal, but its concentration by role and geography argues…
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Europe’s Energy Buffer Is Stronger—But Not Permanent
Europe absorbed the latest energy shock through lower fossil-fuel exposure, fiscal support and AI demand. Those…
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Housing Supply Slows Before Affordability Improves
Falling single-family starts and permits reduce the future housing pipeline before high mortgage costs and unsold…
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Canada’s Trade Shock Raises Prices as Demand Softens
Canada’s surveys improved before trade talks failed, then demand and investment outlooks weakened as inflation expectations…
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China’s Growth Accelerates as Investment Contracts
China’s 4.5% third-quarter growth beat masks a sharp contraction in fixed investment. Finance teams should forecast…
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Aid Cuts and Debt Service Squeeze Essential Spending
Aid fell 23.1% in 2025 while debt service reached 14% of developing-country revenue. Finance leaders should…
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Bond Selloff Tightens Financing Before the ECB Moves
The ECB says long-term rates are tightening financing faster than its September assumptions. Finance teams should…
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Russia Tariff Waiver Opens a 60-Day Planning Window
The Russia tariff waiver delays a severe trade-cost shock but leaves the authority intact. Finance teams…
