Forecasting & Risk
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Factory Output Rises, but Capacity Still Has Slack
September industrial production rose, but below-average capacity utilization argues for evidence-based expansion rather than automatic capital…
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September CPI Splits the Forecast Into Energy and Core Costs
September CPI rose 0.6%, led by gasoline, while core services stayed firm. Finance teams need separate…
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IMF’s 3.1% Global Forecast Masks Narrower Growth
The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, but economic gains are increasingly concentrated.…
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Big Banks Report Growth Without a Broad Credit Break
JPMorgan and Wells Fargo grew loans while credit-loss provisions diverged. Citi’s card data adds caution—what CFOs…
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Household Wealth Rose While Payment Stress Worsened
The Fed’s 2025 household-finance survey shows rising income and wealth alongside materially worse debt-payment pressure. For…
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Bank-Resolution Funding Plans Remain Incomplete
The FSB says roughly half of jurisdictions have material gaps in emergency bank-resolution funding. The finance…
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Services Costs Are Rising Into Slower Growth
September services growth cooled while input-cost pressure broadened, creating a two-sided forecasting problem for finance teams.
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The Jobs Report Calls for Hiring Scenarios, Not a Freeze
September payroll growth slowed to 29,000, but broad layoffs have not followed. Finance teams should update…
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Court Order Preserves $56 Million—Not Cash Certainty
A federal judge preserved nearly $56 million in HUD housing-counseling grants from expiring. For nonprofit finance…
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The Fed’s Stress-Test Overhaul Cuts Volatility, Not Risk
The Fed will smooth stress-capital buffers across two years. Finance teams still need a current risk…
