NUMBERS & JUDGMENT / UPGRADED EXCEL TOOL
The range—not a single answer.
A Forecast Scenario Planner that links downside, base, and upside outcomes to the operating drivers and management actions behind them.
7 workbook tabs · Optional scenario weights · Driver sensitivity · Before/after actions
Free Excel download. No sign-in or email signup required. Open the Start Here tab before editing the inputs.
The decision
What would we do differently if conditions were weaker or stronger than expected? Change volume, price, other revenue, staffing, loaded labor cost, variable costs, and fixed costs. Record management actions and compare the operating result before and after them.
What is upgraded
Inputs and Scenarios feed a Model, a price/volume Sensitivity heatmap, and a Dashboard. Cases are labeled Downside, Base, and Upside—not statistical percentiles. Optional management-assigned weights are checked for a 100% total before the weighted result is displayed. Start Here and Methods make the assumptions explicit.
The worked example: pair each case with an action
The fictional cases produce operating results of negative $608,960, positive $375,000, and positive $919,916 after the modeled actions. The point is not to predict which number will occur; it is to understand which assumptions and decisions move the result.
Use it in three steps
- Set the baseline operating drivers using verified information and a consistent annual period.
- Define distinct downside, base, and upside assumptions. Document the actions that are feasible in each case and avoid counting the same saving twice.
- Compare results with the target and identify signals that would trigger action. Use weighting only when its judgment-based meaning is understood.
Important boundaries
These are management scenarios, not percentile forecasts, confidence intervals, or a simulation. A weighted average can hide a significant downside and is not a substitute for reviewing each case. The model estimates operating results, not the timing of cash receipts or payments.
Related analysis: Stop Pretending the Forecast Is One Number →
Free educational model. No email signup is required for the download. All example assumptions are fictional. Review formulas, dependencies, and actions before using the model in planning.
